Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? Odds fell to 28% on Jul 30, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? On , the market’s odds fell from 49.5¢ to 28.5¢ (-21 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Scripps Reporter. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match49.5¢
+5m46.5¢
+30m26.5¢
+1h28.5¢
+24h27¢
1h move-21 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

YesScripps Reporter96%match
So - the @JayCollinsFL campaign for governor out with new polling: • • Byron Donalds: 46% • Jay Collins: 30% • James Fishback: 9.8% • Paul Renner: 5.9% • • “Notably, undecided voters break for Collins more than any other candidate, with Collins taking 40% of that pool,” said campaign manager @TedVeerman. • • Camp says the poll of 988 likely Florida Republican primary voters was conducted July 28-29 via a text-to-web interface by David Jay Wolfson.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 99%, as of .

YES99¢
NO1¢

Vol$36K

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Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.