Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October? Odds jumped to 100% on Nov 2, 2026

ResolvedMove

Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October? On , the market’s odds jumped from 89.5¢ to 100¢ (+10.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 4-source news cluster, from dbnews. The market has since resolved.

How did the odds move?

At match89.5¢
+5m100¢
+30m100¢
+1h100¢
1h move+10.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Nov 2, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 89.5¢ → 100¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from News

What moved the odds?

Part of a 4-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Yesdbnews95%match
*US OCT. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX AT 55.5 VS 54.5; EST. 54.6
YesNews95%match
*US OCT. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX RISES TO 55.5; EST. 54.5
YesNews95%match
*US OCT. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX RISES TO 55.5; EST. 54.5

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$17K

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Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.