Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? Odds fell to 55% on Aug 5, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? On , the market’s odds fell from 71.3¢ to 55¢ (-16.3 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match71.3¢
+5m71¢
+30m55¢
+1h55¢
+24h99.6¢
1h move-16.3 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 71.5¢ → 91¢+19.5 ptsafter a signal from foxnews
  • 70¢ → 91¢+21 ptsafter a signal from CBS Reporter

What moved the odds?

Yesnytimes.com98%match
Live: Detroit just released a large chunk of its Election Day votes, narrowing Haley Stevens’s margin in the city to around 28 percentage points from 42. This vote drop was much better for Dr. Abdul El-Sayed than previous drops in Detroit; he trails in the city’s Election Day votes by just three percentage points, compared to around 50 in votes cast before Election Day.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$30K

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Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.