Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? Odds jumped to 12% on Aug 5, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 0.1¢ to 11.7¢ (+11.6 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Semafor Reporter. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match0.1¢
+5m0.1¢
+30m2.2¢
+1h11.7¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move+11.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 0.2¢ → 11¢+10.8 ptsafter a signal from cnn.com
  • 0.2¢ → 19.9¢+19.7 ptsafter a signal from PBS Reporter
  • 10.9¢ → 25.1¢+14.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 25.4¢ → 4.5¢-20.9 ptsafter a signal from cnn.com
  • 10.1¢ → 1.8¢-8.3 ptsafter a signal from PBS Reporter

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesSemafor Reporter96%match
Huge Oakland County drop, and Stevens wins it, by a 50-48 margin over El-Sayed. • • Whitmer won the county 54-32 in 2018, w Thanedar getting the rest.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$19K

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Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.