Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? Odds jumped to 30% on Aug 5, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? On , the market’s odds jumped from 6.5¢ to 30.1¢ (+23.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match6.5¢
+5m6.5¢
+30m31.1¢
+1h30.1¢
+24h99.6¢
1h move+23.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 54¢ → 98.1¢+44.2 ptsafter a signal from CNN Reporter
  • 50.9¢ → 98.3¢+47.4 ptsafter a signal from NBC Reporter

What moved the odds?

Yesnytimes.com97%match
Live: The crowd at Haley Stevens’s watch party tonight was quiet until around 10:20 p.m., when results started to show her narrowing the gap with Dr. Abdul El-Sayed. Now, her supporters have begun to wave campaign posters as they wait for Stevens to make an appearance. Stevens’s dad, Jim, is in the crowd. He praised his daughter, saying she would restore “trust and togetherness” in America. Of the close contest with El-Sayed, he said, “I think she’ll squeak by.”

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$17K

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Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Macomb County Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.