Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? Odds jumped to 93% on Jul 6, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? On , the market’s odds jumped from 73.5¢ to 92.5¢ (+19 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from nypost.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match73.5¢
+5m76¢
+30m96¢
+1h92.5¢
1h move+19 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 6, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 76.5¢ → 91.5¢+15 ptsafter a signal from Politico Reporter
  • 76.5¢ → 91.5¢+15 ptsafter a signal from NOTUS Reporter
  • 75¢ → 91.5¢+16.5 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
  • 76.5¢ → 91.5¢+15 ptsafter a signal from cnbc.com
  • 87.5¢ → 95.7¢+8.2 ptsafter a signal from Semafor Reporter
  • 87.5¢ → 95.7¢+8.2 ptsafter a signal from CNN Reporter
  • 87.5¢ → 95.7¢+8.2 ptsafter a signal from Semafor Reporter

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Yesnypost.com99%match
Live: Graham Platner ex accuses him of rape, says Maine Senate hopeful was 'very drunk and wouldn’t take no for an answer'

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$808K

Follow this market

Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.