Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? Odds jumped to 71% on Jul 7, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? On , the market’s odds jumped from 47¢ to 70.5¢ (+23.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Politico Reporter. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match47¢
+5m47¢
+30m70.5¢
+1h70.5¢
+24h29¢
1h move+23.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 47¢ → 70.5¢+23.5 ptsafter a signal from ms.now
  • 55¢ → 73.5¢+18.5 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
  • 55¢ → 73.5¢+18.5 ptsafter a signal from ABC Reporter
  • 55¢ → 74.5¢+19.5 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com
  • 55¢ → 74¢+19 ptsafter a signal from foxnews.com
  • 56¢ → 81.5¢+25.5 ptsafter a signal from WaPo Reporter
  • 56¢ → 81.5¢+25.5 ptsafter a signal from NBC Reporter
  • 56¢ → 81.5¢+25.5 ptsafter a signal from Fox Reporter
  • 56¢ → 81.5¢+25.5 ptsafter a signal from Semafor Reporter
  • 56¢ → 81.5¢+25.5 ptsafter a signal from washingtonpost.com
  • 56¢ → 74¢+18 ptsafter a signal from APws
  • 56¢ → 74¢+18 ptsafter a signal from Punchbowl Reporter

What moved the odds?

NeutralPolitico Reporter99%match
NEW — Platner’s Hill support crumbles • • A growing list of moderate + progressive Senate Dems, House Dems & party leaders all say Platner is no longer a viable candidate for Maine Senate — and he needs to drop out today • • Rep. @chelliepingree (D-Maine) tells @politico: “I do not believe Graham should remain in this race. He should immediately withdraw” • • “…Mainers deserve a nominee they can trust, a campaign focused on the challenges facing our state and our country, and a Democratic Party that responds to allegations of sexual assault with clarity, compassion, and accountability.” • • via @politico

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$236K

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Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.