Will Graham Platner drop out by July 7? Odds fell to 50% on Jul 7, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 7? On , the market’s odds fell from 61¢ to 50¢ (-11 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from ft.com. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Jul 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 54.5¢ → 45¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from Semafor Reporter
- 30.5¢ → 60¢+29.5 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
- 26¢ → 49¢+23 ptsafter a signal from Punchbowl Reporter
- 26¢ → 45¢+19 ptsafter a signal from foxnews.com
- 24¢ → 52.5¢+28.5 ptsafter a signal from WaPo Reporter
- 24¢ → 53¢+29 ptsafter a signal from NBC Reporter
- 24¢ → 52.5¢+28.5 ptsafter a signal from Fox Reporter
- 24¢ → 52.5¢+28.5 ptsafter a signal from Semafor Reporter
- 24¢ → 48.5¢+24.5 ptsafter a signal from washingtonpost.com
- 31.5¢ → 41¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from APws
- 53¢ → 36.5¢-16.5 ptsafter a signal from time.com
- 45¢ → 35¢-10 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
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Will Graham Platner drop out by July 7? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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