Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? Odds fell to 5% on Jul 7, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? On , the market’s odds fell from 16¢ to 5¢ (-11 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match16¢
+5m16¢
+30m16¢
+1h5¢
+24h4.9¢
1h move-11 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 16¢ → 4.7¢-11.3 ptsafter a signal from Politico Reporter
  • 16¢ → 4.5¢-11.5 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com
  • 12.5¢ → 4.5¢-8 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 5.1¢ → 16¢+10.9 ptsafter a signal from NYT Reporter
  • 5.1¢ → 16¢+10.9 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com

What moved the odds?

Yesnytimes.com99%match
Live: Looming over the question of how Maine Democrats would replace Graham Platner is the specter of the Democratic National Committee’s anointment of Kamala Harris when President Joseph R. Biden Jr. ended his 2024 campaign. Top Democrats in both Maine and Washington are acutely aware of hindsight that there could have been a competitive process two summers ago and would prefer to avoid appearing to pick a Senate nominee on their own. Yet with less than three weeks before a deadline for a replacement name, there is limited time for an open and public process to select someone new.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$143K

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Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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