Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Odds fell to 18% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? On , the market’s odds fell from 96.2¢ to 18.2¢ (-78 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match96.2¢
+5m96.4¢
+30m32.5¢
+1h18.2¢
1h move-78 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralnytimes.com98%match
Live: Polls are now closed in Wisconsin, where Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, is hoping to complete her journey from long-shot progressive wildcard to Democratic nominee for governor. Her main rival is David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, who is endorsed by the outgoing governor, Tony Evers.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$1.8M

Follow this market

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.