Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30? Odds fell to 10% on Sep 1, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30? On , the market’s odds fell from 20.5¢ to 10¢ (-10.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from almayadeennews. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match20.5¢
+5m20.5¢
+30m20.5¢
+1h10¢
+24h16¢
1h move-10.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Neutralalmayadeennews95%match
Reuters, citing ship tracking data: The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized at around 5, which is lower than the average of the past 10 days, which was approximately 14 ships. #AlMayadeen

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$14K

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Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.