Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30? Odds jumped to 36% on Aug 31, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30? On , the market’s odds jumped from 9¢ to 35.5¢ (+26.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from alarabiya. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match9¢
+5m9¢
+30m9¢
+1h35.5¢
+24h21.5¢
1h move+26.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Noalarabiya95%match
Shipping data: The number of commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily has dropped to 5.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$14K

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Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.