Will David Lammy be in the Burnham cabinet? Odds jumped to 50% on Jul 18, 2026

Andy Burnham's policy blitz next week as he seeks to get his Premiership started with a bang: • • * Cost of living: Energy bill cuts - possibly removing VAT or pushing older wind and solar farms onto fixed-price contracts. Sounds like they're looking at cuts to bus fares across the board - could we see the return of the £2 cap? • • * Public control of water and energy companies. Doesn't sound like full-blown nationalisation. Mutualisation has been discussed with emphasis on ensuring local areas have control • • * North Sea oil and gas: Burnham will make a day one announcement on intention to have more drilling. What form that takes is not yet clear - Rosebank/ Jackdaw, tiebacks, new drilling licences are all on the table. Sounds like a significant shift • • * Social care: Burnham intent on 'grasping the nettle'. Sounds like he wants to build a cross-party consensus. Last time he held talks privately with Andrew Lansley before the Tories turned on him publicly over 'death tax'. He has learned the lesson and will be upfront in his approach • • * Council housebuilding: Burnham's language shifted subtly in his speech on Friday, as @PickardJE picked up, to extend to both council housing and social housing. Either way it sounds like he intends to repurpose and bolster the £39billion budget for social and affordable homes • • * No 10 North: Devolution will be at the heart of his pitch. He's going to spend part of the week at the new No 10 North site in Manchester to symbolise his approach. It sounds like they're co-opting one of the GCHQ buildings • • * The winners: Shabana Mahmood expected to be Chancellor. Lou Haigh gets CDL. Johnny Reynolds gets beefed up business department after DSIT is scrapped. Lucy Powell in line to be DPM although discussions ongoing. Anneliese Midgley expected to become chair of the Labour Party. Wes Streeting could return to health but is also being mooted for MOD • • * Angela Rayner would take 'some persuading' to go to health. An ally pointed to recent interventions on devolution, regional inequality and the cost of living, including proposals on social care that focus on local government and mayors. Not clear if she will get housing though - Miatta Fahnbulleh linked to role • • * Some of Starmer’s most loyal allies are expected to leave government entirely, including Steve Reed, the housing secretary; Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the prime minister; Peter Kyle, the business secretary; Lord Hermer, the attorney-general; and Liz Kendall, the science and technology secretary. The future of David Lammy, the deputy prime minister and justice secretary, is also unclear • •