Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 1–2%? Odds fell to 1% on Aug 12, 2026

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Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 1–2%? On , the market’s odds fell from 12.5¢ to 0.5¢ (-12 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com.

How did the odds move?

At match12.5¢
+5m12.5¢
+30m0.1¢
+1h0.5¢
+24h0.3¢
1h move-12 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 12.5¢ → 0.5¢-12 ptsafter a signal from A hard-fought Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor between Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong remained too close to call early Wednesday morning – one of Tuesday’s marquee races testing voters’ attitudes over the direction of the party. Crowley, who enjoys Gov. Tony Evers’s (D) endorsement, led Hong by just shy of 3,000…
  • 12.5¢ → 0.5¢-12 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

Neutralnytimes.com97%match
Live: David Crowley’s supporters have gone home, and the candidate will not appear tonight, his campaign announced at about 1 a.m. Central Time Wednesday. Milwaukee County election officials have not yet shared results from an estimated 20,000 Democratic absentee ballots delayed by a technical glitch. Crowley leads Francesca Hong by about 2,600 votes as both campaigns call it a night.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$14K

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Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 1–2%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (Small Brackets) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.