Will David Crowley win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? Odds fell to 17% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will David Crowley win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? On , the market’s odds fell from 47¢ to 16.5¢ (-30.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match47¢
+5m47¢
+30m46¢
+1h16.5¢
+24h0.1¢
1h move-30.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 22¢ → 3.5¢-18.5 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 16.5¢ → 1.5¢-15 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com

What moved the odds?

Yesnytimes.com98%match
Live: The early results in Wisconsin suggest that David Crowley, an establishment-backed Democratic candidate for governor, is running far more competitively against the democratic socialist Francesca Hong than pre-election polls suggested. Crowley leads the early returns across much of the state, with Hong underperforming even in relatively progressive counties.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$9K

Follow this market

Will David Crowley win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary: Kenosha County Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.