Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet? Odds fell to 5% on Jul 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet? On , the market’s odds fell from 30.5¢ to 5¢ (-25.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Bloomberg Reporter. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match30.5¢
+5m17.5¢
+30m25.5¢
+1h5¢
+24h0.3¢
1h move-25.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoBloomberg Reporter95%match
Some remarkable cabinet appointments • • Wes Streeting defence secretary despite having no experience, replacing former soldier Dan Jarvis • • Ed Miliband foreign sec despite Trump admin’s views • • Shabana Mahmood home will disappoint Burnhamites who hoped she’d be moved • • And Healey…

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$6K

Follow this market

Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Who will be in the Burnham cabinet? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.