Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan? Odds jumped to 74% on Jul 27, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan? On , the market’s odds jumped from 60¢ to 74¢ (+14 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from livesquawk. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match60¢
+5m59.5¢
+30m65¢
+1h74¢
1h move+14 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 27, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 80.5¢ → 96¢+15.5 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 81¢ → 96¢+15 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 81¢ → 96¢+15 ptsafter a signal from m.thepaper.cn
  • 82¢ → 96¢+14 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 77.5¢ → 96¢+18.5 ptsafter a signal from nikkei.com

What moved the odds?

Neutrallivesquawk98%match
CXMT is set to begin trading in Shanghai on Monday after raising 66.6 billion yuan ($9.8 billion) in the second-largest IPO in China’s history, with potential for a first-day gain that would make it the largest company in the country

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$46K

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Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap Above __? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.