Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Odds fell to 11% on Sep 10, 2026

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Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? On , the market’s odds fell from 21¢ to 10.5¢ (-10.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from welt.de.

How did the odds move?

At match21¢
+5m21¢
+30m12¢
+1h10.5¢
1h move-10.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 10, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 21¢ → 10.5¢-10.5 ptsafter a signal from bild.de

What moved the odds?

Yeswelt.de96%match
Poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD only three points ahead of SPD – CDU slides to its worst ever recorded level

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 11% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES11¢
NO90¢

Vol$18K

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Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.