Will Angie Nixon be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? Odds jumped to 100% on Aug 18, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Angie Nixon be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? On , the market’s odds jumped from 9.9¢ to 100¢ (+90.1 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ). The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match9.9¢
+5m29.7¢
+30m97.5¢
+1h100¢
+24h100¢
1h move+90.1 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 18, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 5.3¢ → 100¢+94.7 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 5.3¢ → 100¢+94.7 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 24.6¢ → 100¢+75.4 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 52.2¢ → 100¢+47.8 ptsafter a signal from Semafor Reporter
  • 87.7¢ → 100¢+12.3 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 90.7¢ → 100¢+9.3 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 9% in): Florida US Senate Democratic Special Election Primary • • Angie Nixon (D): 53,574 (50.1%) • Alex Vindman (D): 53,369 (49.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 38% in): Florida US Senate Democratic Special Election Primary • • Alex Vindman (D): 243,979 (50.9%) • Angie Nixon (D): 235,522 (49.1%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$88K

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Will Angie Nixon be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.