Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Odds fell to 4% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? On , the market’s odds fell from 31.5¢ to 3.9¢ (-27.6 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match31.5¢
+5m31.5¢
+30m30¢
+1h3.9¢
1h move-27.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 31¢ → 3.3¢-27.7 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 30¢ → 3.4¢-26.6 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Neutralnytimes.com97%match
Live: 5 Things to Know About the Minnesota Senate Candidate Angie Craig

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$153K

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Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.