Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? Odds jumped to 43% on Aug 5, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? On , the market’s odds jumped from 34.5¢ to 43.5¢ (+9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match34.5¢
+5m34.5¢
+30m44.8¢
+1h43.5¢
+24h0.5¢
1h move+9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralnytimes.com98%match
Live: Detroit just released a large chunk of its Election Day votes, narrowing Haley Stevens’s margin in the city to around 28 percentage points from 42. This vote drop was much better for Dr. Abdul El-Sayed than previous drops in Detroit; he trails in the city’s Election Day votes by just three percentage points, compared to around 50 in votes cast before Election Day.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$63K

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Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.