Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? Odds jumped to 32% on Aug 5, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: Yes
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 0.3¢ to 32.3¢ (+32.1 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ). The market has since resolved Yes.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 20.5¢ → 66.4¢+45.9 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 16.2¢ → 67.3¢+51 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 18¢ → 72.3¢+54.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 32.5¢ → 74.6¢+42.2 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 37.5¢ → 63.7¢+26.3 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 37.5¢ → 62.6¢+25.1 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 54.1¢ → 76.7¢+22.6 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
- 67.3¢ → 81.4¢+14.1 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 72.2¢ → 81.4¢+9.2 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
- 72.3¢ → 81.4¢+9.1 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
- 72.3¢ → 61.7¢-10.6 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
- 74.8¢ → 60.9¢-13.9 ptsafter a signal from NBC Reporter
What moved the odds?
Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
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Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.