Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Odds jumped to 95% on Sep 10, 2026

OpenMove

Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 20.3¢ to 95.2¢ (+75 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ).

How did the odds move?

At match20.3¢
+5m58.9¢
+30m87.1¢
+1h95.2¢
1h move+75 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NeutralDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 60% in): Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary • • Aaron Guckian (R): 6,834 (50.0%) • Elaine Pelino (R): 6,822 (50.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 80% in): Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary • • Aaron Guckian (R): 9,508 (50.6%) • Elaine Pelino (R): 9,302 (49.5%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 32% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES32¢
NO68¢

Vol$45K

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Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.