Will 51 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General? Odds fell to 27% on Aug 4, 2026

With GOP ME Sen Collins opposing Blanche for AG: • • It’s about the math. • • The Senate is effectively operating at 52 Republicans and 47 senators who caucus with the Democrats with the absence of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY). • • So with Collins’ opposition, and presuming that all Democrats are nays, that gets you to 51-48. • • What we don’t know is if the decisions by Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and John Cornyn (R-TX) to support Blanche provides cover for other possible GOPers who may have reservations with Blanche. That includes Sens. John Curtis (R-UT) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). • • If Blanche loses the support of one more (presuming everything is equal) the vote is 50-49. Remember, Vice President JD Vance CAN ONLY vote if it’s a tie. • • So the nomination can only lose one more vote. An additional no vote from a GOPer blocks the nomination. • • Keep in mind that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has been rather cryptic about the rest of the schedule this week.