US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? Odds fell to 23% on Jul 13, 2026

US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? On Jul 13, 2026, 14:18 UTC, the market’s odds fell from 33.5¢ to 23¢ (-10.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 4-source news cluster, from Al Arabiya. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 13, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

• Jul 13, 2026, 14:19 UTC31.5¢ → 23¢-8.5 ptsafter a signal from Al Hadath

What moved the odds?

Part of a 4-source news cluster, first seen Jul 13, 2026, 14:19 UTC. The triggering signal is listed first.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of Aug 30, 2026, 19:36 UTC.

Vol$89K

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US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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