US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Odds jumped to 42% on Aug 17, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? On , the market’s odds jumped from 2.9¢ to 42.1¢ (+39.2 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Bloomberg Reporter. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
2.9¢
3.8¢
4¢
42.1¢
3.3¢
+39.2 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 17, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 4¢ → 14¢+10.1 ptsafter a signal from Al Arabiya
- 4¢ → 14¢+10.1 ptsafter a signal from News
- 29.6¢ → 14.3¢-15.2 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
- 39.5¢ → 14.7¢-24.8 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk
- 38.9¢ → 14.7¢-24.2 ptsafter a signal from marketnews_feed
- 33.1¢ → 15.1¢-18 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
- 28.7¢ → 14.5¢-14.2 ptsafter a signal from Al Arabiya
- 30.5¢ → 14.4¢-16.1 ptsafter a signal from Galatz
- 30.3¢ → 14.5¢-15.8 ptsafter a signal from Belarus State News Agency
What moved the odds?
NoBloomberg Reporter94%match
The 60 day Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran officially expires today.
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
$2.9M
Follow this market
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.