US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Odds fell to 23% on Aug 12, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? On , the market’s odds fell from 31¢ to 22.5¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from iranintl. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
31¢
28¢
27.5¢
22.5¢
24.5¢
-8.5 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 31.5¢ → 22.5¢-9 ptsafter a signal from dpa.com
What moved the odds?
Noiranintl97%match
A senior Iranian government source told Reuters that there were no talks underway between the Islamic Republic and the United States to extend the 60-day ceasefire, and that Tehran saw no date for the ceasefire to start that could be extended. "There has been absolutely no progress on this issue," the source said, referring to the state of the talks. "One of the issues being discussed was the US returning to the agreement and setting a timetable for implementing Washington's commitments," he added. "The US violated the interim agreement 48 hours after it was reached and withdrew a few days later," the source said. "From Iran's perspective, there is no start date for the ceasefire, so there is nothing to extend."
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
$2.9M
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US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.