US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Odds fell to 75% on Aug 7, 2026

OpenMove

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 83¢ to 74.5¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from n12news.

How did the odds move?

At match83¢
+5m79.5¢
+30m75.5¢
+1h74.5¢
+24h58.5¢
1h move-8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 82.5¢ → 74.5¢-8 ptsafter a signal from Iranian Media

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Yesn12news95%match
US official to Reuters: Progress between Oman and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, expect a deal soon. As soon as the agreement is announced - the US will lift the blockade on Iranian ports
YesKan Reporter97%match
A senior US official told Reuters that the United States expects an agreement between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz to be reached soon. This is in light of the progress in the talks between them. The US official added that as soon as an agreement is announced to resume commercial shipping without any interference – the United States will lift its blockade of Iranian ports

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$4.7M

Follow this market

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for US announces end of Iranian blockade — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.