Will Francesca Hong win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? Odds fell to 49% on Aug 12, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Francesca Hong win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? On , the market’s odds fell from 77.5¢ to 48.5¢ (-29 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match77.5¢
+5m77.5¢
+30m49.5¢
+1h48.5¢
+24h99.6¢
1h move-29 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 80.4¢ → 53.8¢-26.6 ptsafter a signal from foxnews

What moved the odds?

Neutralnytimes.com98%match
Live: Polls are now closed in Wisconsin, where Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, is hoping to complete her journey from long-shot progressive wildcard to Democratic nominee for governor. Her main rival is David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, who is endorsed by the outgoing governor, Tony Evers.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$19K

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Will Francesca Hong win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary: Kenosha County Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.