Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? Odds fell to 16% on Sep 24, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? On , the market’s odds fell from 25.4¢ to 15.8¢ (-9.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from US Trade Representative. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match25.4¢
+5m24.1¢
+30m19¢
+1h15.8¢
+24h71.5¢
1h move-9.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 24, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 45.4¢ → 62¢+16.6 ptsafter a signal from Ukrainian Media
  • 42.4¢ → 52.5¢+10.1 ptsafter a signal from zerohedge

What moved the odds?

NeutralUS Trade Representative94%match
President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump greet President Xi Jinping of China and Madame Peng Liyuan upon their arrival in Washington, D.C., ahead of the state visit at the White House.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$38K

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Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for How long will Trump and Xi shake hands? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.