Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by December 31? Odds fell to 87% on Aug 7, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by December 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 97.3¢ to 87.2¢ (-10.1 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from livesquawk. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match97.3¢
+5m90.5¢
+30m88.7¢
+1h87.2¢
+24h100¢
1h move-10.1 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 89.3¢ → 98.6¢+9.4 ptsafter a signal from MS NOW Reporter
  • 90.4¢ → 98.6¢+8.2 ptsafter a signal from White House Rapid Response

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Nolivesquawk94%match
BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Lisa Murkowski will vote NO on Todd Blanche's AG nomination, dramatically narrowing his path to confirmation • • "The country needs an Attorney General who will check the worst impulses of this administration," Murkowski said in a statement. "I hope Mr. Blanche is able to achieve that, if confirmed, but I simply do not have confidence that will be the case." • • Murkowski pointed to concerns w/ DOJ's handling of the Epstein files release, Trump's tax audit immunity deal, statements to anti-abortion groups & the "repeated targeting of individuals ranging from former administration staff to sitting U.S. Senators." She's also unconvinced the "anti-weaponization fund" is truly dead, saying after Blanche is confirmed "there is no telling what the future holds" • • All eyes now turn to Sen. Bill Cassidy, the final GOP holdout. His vote determines whether Blanche can be confirmed before August recess

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$7K

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Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by December 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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