Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027? Odds jumped to 54% on Nov 12, 2026

OpenMoveNov 12, 2026, 21:17 UTC

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027? On Nov 12, 2026, 21:17 UTC, the market’s odds jumped from 43.5¢ to 53.5¢ (+10 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from afr.com.

How did the odds move?

At match43.5¢

+5m43.5¢

+30m44.5¢

+1h53.5¢

1h move+10 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Yesafr.com97%match

SpaceX and Tesla on track for merger as soon as December

Nov 12, 2026, 21:17 UTC

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 45% chance that this market resolves YES, as of Nov 12, 2026, 22:18 UTC.

YES45¢

NO56¢

Vol$76K

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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.