Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Odds jumped to 29% on Jul 31, 2026

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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 17.5¢ to 29¢ (+11.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from dj.

How did the odds move?

At match17.5¢
+5m29.5¢
+30m31.5¢
+1h29¢
+24h19.5¢
1h move+11.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 31, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 17.5¢ → 29¢+11.5 ptsafter a signal from dbws.io
  • 17.5¢ → 28.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from Reuters

What moved the odds?

Neutraldj96%match
*Moves Could Be Precursor to Tesla, SpaceX Merger -- WSJ

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 19% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES19¢
NO82¢

Vol$135K

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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.