Spain snap election called by October 31? Odds fell to 73% on Oct 4, 2026
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Spain snap election called by October 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 83¢ to 73¢ (-10 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 3-source news cluster, from Euronews Reporter.
How did the odds move?
83¢
83.5¢
76.5¢
73¢
-10 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
Part of a 3-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
YesEuronews Reporter96%match
Multiple Spanish media report that Pedro Sánchez is all but guaranteed to call snap elections on Monday after concluding the defeat of his two housing bills has put end to his fragile majority. The earliest date for the elections should be 29 November.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 76% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES76¢
NO24¢
$47K
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Spain snap election called by October 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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