Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? Odds fell to 52% on Oct 5, 2026

OpenMove

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 60.5¢ to 52.2¢ (-8.3 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from IRGC-linked Iraqi militia media.

How did the odds move?

At match60.5¢
+5m60.3¢
+30m58.4¢
+1h52.2¢
1h move-8.3 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Oct 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 60.5¢ → 52.2¢-8.2 ptsafter a signal from Questionably accurate pro-Iran channel
  • 60.4¢ → 52.2¢-8.1 ptsafter a signal from ab3_ali3

What moved the odds?

NoIRGC-linked Iraqi militia media96%match
The Saudi East-West oil pipeline was attacked again, with satellite images showing smoke extending for about 50 km from pumping station number 2 east of Riyadh.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 58% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES58¢
NO42¢

Vol$552K

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Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.