Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? Odds jumped to 50% on Nov 4, 2026
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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? On , the market’s odds jumped from 28¢ to 49.5¢ (+21.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Times Reporter.
How did the odds move?
28¢
26.5¢
29.5¢
49.5¢
+21.5 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Nov 4, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 48.5¢ → 58.5¢+10 ptsafter a signal from cbsnews.com
What moved the odds?
YesTimes Reporter94%match
A US military source says: "Hegseth's days are numbered". There are differing views on why - some believe he will face inevitable impeachment by the Democrats, others believe Trump will sack him as the fall guy for the disastrous Iran war. • Either way, he has already alienated significant parts of the US military. • • One senior military officer, not authorised to speak on the record, tells @thetimes: "Personally, after decades of service and five combat deployments I’m just tired of being called ‘woke’ by a secretary who seems to spend more time worrying about NCO business than actually making serious policy decisions."
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 38% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES38¢
NO62¢
$186K
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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.