NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? Odds jumped to 85% on Aug 16, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 63.5¢ to 84.5¢ (+21 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match63.5¢
+5m70¢
+30m80.5¢
+1h84.5¢
+24h92.1¢
1h move+21 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 16, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 75.5¢ → 85¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from Walter Bloomberg

What moved the odds?

YesReuters94%match
NATO Military Headquarters Spokesperson on Drone Shot Down Earlier in Romanian Airspace: Drone Appears to Be Russian

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$486K

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NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for NATO downs another Russian drone — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.