NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? Odds fell to 50% on Aug 14, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 58.5¢ to 50¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Ukrainian Public Broadcaster. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match58.5¢
+5m58.5¢
+30m54¢
+1h50¢
+24h41.5¢
1h move-8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 14, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 54¢ → 37¢-17 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
  • 54¢ → 36¢-18 ptsafter a signal from yna.co.kr
  • 56.5¢ → 38¢-18.5 ptsafter a signal from france24.com
  • 62.5¢ → 47.5¢-15 ptsafter a signal from 47news.jp

What moved the odds?

YesUkrainian Public Broadcaster96%match
NATO fighter jets shot down a drone that violated Latvian airspace this morning, the country's Armed Forces said, Reuters reports. At the same time, Finland temporarily restricted air and sea traffic in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland due to a possible drone threat.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$486K

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NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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