Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 23% on Jul 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 13.4¢ to 23.3¢ (+9.9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from FT Reporter. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match13.4¢
+5m26.7¢
+30m19.1¢
+1h23.3¢
+24h9¢
1h move+9.9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 14.3¢ → 23.3¢+9 ptsafter a signal from FT Reporter
  • 15.4¢ → 25.2¢+9.8 ptsafter a signal from Ukrainian Media

What moved the odds?

YesFT Reporter97%match
SCOOP: Zelenskyy proposed over the weekend to bring back Mykhailo Fedorov with an expanded mandate, according to people familiar with the matter, days after Fedorov’s removal sparked an uproar. A senior Ukrainian official and two other people familiar said that Fedorov wanted only to return to the defence ministry.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$133K

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Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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