Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? Odds jumped to 69% on Sep 3, 2026
OpenMove
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? On , the market’s odds jumped from 58.5¢ to 68.5¢ (+10 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Ukrainian Public Broadcaster.
How did the odds move?
At match58.5¢
+5m60¢
+30m59¢
+1h68.5¢
1h move+10 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Sep 3, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
60¢ → 75¢+15 ptsafter a signal from Ukrainian Media
What moved the odds?
▲YesUkrainian Public Broadcaster94%match
Moscow's Vnukovo and Sheremetyevo airports have suspended operations for the second night in a row after Zelensky warned about the danger of Russian airspace for civil aviation. The Moscow Times reports. Three airports in the Russian capital temporarily suspended operations the day before. According to the Flightradar24 service, 21 flights were canceled and 235 were delayed at Sheremetyevo, and 22 were canceled and 94 flights were delayed at Vnukovo. [in reply to: Russia's airspace and key airports will become dangerous for civil flights, Zelensky said in a video address. The Ukrainian president claims that airlines that still use Russian skies should consider the risks. "Safety in Russia's skies will return when a real movement towards peace begins. The skies over Russia are now for drones, not for civil aviation, while the war is ongoing. It is important that the world contributes to its completion,” Zelenskyy said. As Zelenskyy noted, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and relevant institutions will provide international organizations with full information on the risks of being in Russian skies. He called on air carriers to act preventively and take into account Ukraine’s warnings for the safety of civilians.]
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 80% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .