Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? Odds jumped to 23% on Aug 9, 2026

OpenMove

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? On , the market’s odds jumped from 9.5¢ to 22.5¢ (+13 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from fnn.jp.

How did the odds move?

At match9.5¢
+5m9.5¢
+30m25¢
+1h22.5¢
+24h22¢
1h move+13 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 9, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 9.5¢ → 30.5¢+21 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
  • 15¢ → 41¢+26 ptsafter a signal from Sky News Arabia
  • 15¢ → 37¢+22 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
  • 24.5¢ → 33¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from Walter Bloomberg
  • 37¢ → 25.5¢-11.5 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya

What moved the odds?

Yesfnn.jp97%match
Iranian media reports "first public release" of what appears to be footage of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba; the filming date is unknown.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 6% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES6¢
NO95¢

Vol$329K

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Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.