Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Odds jumped to 38% on Aug 9, 2026

OpenMove

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 24.5¢ to 38¢ (+13.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from alarabiya.

How did the odds move?

At match24.5¢
+5m24.5¢
+30m36.5¢
+1h38¢
+24h30.5¢
1h move+13.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 9, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 24.5¢ → 49¢+24.5 ptsafter a signal from Sky News Arabia
  • 26.5¢ → 46.5¢+20 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
  • 47.5¢ → 35.5¢-12 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
  • 40.5¢ → 32.5¢-8 ptsafter a signal from alhadath

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Yesalarabiya96%match
Iranian Mehr News Agency: Pezeshkian Meets Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Today ===== Iranian Mehr News Agency reported that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met today with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. The semi-official Iranian Mehr News Agency published a video of Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, which it said was "being published for the first time," without specifying when it was filmed, whether recently or before he assumed the position of Supreme Leader following his father, or providing any further details. The video, which is only about 13 seconds long, shows Khamenei sitting surrounded by a number of his students. The recording does not include any time signature that could confirm its recentness, according to CGTN. Iranian social media users questioned the video, saying it was old and dates back to when Mojtaba Khamenei was giving religious lessons. From Al Arabiya

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 23% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES23¢
NO77¢

Vol$560K

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Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.