Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? Odds fell to 48% on Oct 12, 2026
OpenMove
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 56¢ to 48¢ (-8 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 3-source news cluster, from alarabiya.
How did the odds move?
At match56¢
+5m57¢
+30m47.5¢
+1h48¢
1h move-8 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Oct 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
57¢ → 47.5¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from alhadath
57¢ → 47.5¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from alhadath
47¢ → 58.5¢+11.5 ptsafter a signal from Bloomberg Reporter
47.5¢ → 58.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from Semi-Official YJC News Agency
48¢ → 59¢+11 ptsafter a signal from thehill.com
58¢ → 68.5¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from ms.now
What moved the odds?
Part of a 3-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
▲Yesalarabiya97%match
She offered access to senior officials in exchange for financial support and asked a businessman to pay a large credit card bill... Trump considers firing the US ambassador to Greece after allegations of misconduct. ======= The Trump administration is considering firing US Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle, according to media reports. Allegations against the ambassador include offering access to senior officials in exchange for financial support. Messages attributed to Guilfoyle included a request to pay a large credit card bill, according to Fox News. Investigations and reviews have focused on allegations of mismanagement at the embassy, as well as on business relationships and interests. Guilfoyle's lawyer denied the authenticity of the messages and rejected any suggestion of wrongdoing on the part of the ambassador.
▲Yesalhadath98%match
Trump Considers Firing US Ambassador to Greece After Misconduct Allegations The Trump administration is considering firing US Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle, according to media reports. Allegations against the ambassador include offering to facilitate access to senior officials in exchange for financial support. Messages attributed to Guilfoyle included a request to pay a large credit card bill, according to Fox News. Investigations and reviews have focused on allegations of mismanagement of the embassy premises, business relationships, and interests. Guilfoyle's lawyer denied the authenticity of the messages and rejected any suggestion of wrongdoing on the part of the ambassador.
▲Yesalhadath98%match
Trump considers firing US ambassador to Greece after allegations of misconduct. The Trump administration is reportedly considering firing US Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle, according to media reports. Allegations against the ambassador include offering access to senior officials in exchange for financial support. Messages attributed to Guilfoyle reportedly included a request to pay a large credit card bill, according to Fox News. Investigations and reviews have focused on allegations of mismanagement at the embassy, as well as business relationships and interests. Guilfoyle's lawyer denied the authenticity of the messages and rejected any suggestion of wrongdoing on the part of the ambassador.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 69% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .