Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026? Odds jumped to 90% on Jul 11, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 80¢ to 89.5¢ (+9.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Al Hadath. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match80¢
+5m80¢
+30m80¢
+1h89.5¢
+24h87¢
1h move+9.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 11, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 84.5¢ → 93¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from Iran State News Agency

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesAl Hadath99%match
AFP: The next round of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon will be held in Rome on the 15th and 16th of this month.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$10K

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Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.