Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026? Odds fell to 57% on Jul 7, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 67¢ to 57¢ (-10 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Lebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match67¢
+5m67¢
+30m58¢
+1h57¢
+24h41.5¢
1h move-10 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 66¢ → 50.5¢-15.5 ptsafter a signal from alhadath
  • 43¢ → 60¢+17 ptsafter a signal from Lebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed

What moved the odds?

NoLebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed99%match
The Israeli ambassador to the United States: The next round of talks between Lebanon and Israel will be held in Rome on July 15 and 16.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$84K

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Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.