Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? Odds fell to 25% on Jul 13, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? On , the market’s odds fell from 35.8¢ to 25.2¢ (-10.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match35.8¢
+5m36.1¢
+30m30.9¢
+1h25.2¢
1h move-10.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NeutralReuters99%match
Iran’s State TV Cites Iranian Army as Saying That It Targeted a ‘Hostile’ U.S. Vessel with Cruise Missiles

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$53K

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Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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