Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Odds fell to 60% on Sep 12, 2026

OpenMove

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 68¢ to 59.5¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Kan Reporter.

How did the odds move?

At match68¢
+5m70.5¢
+30m68.5¢
+1h59.5¢
+24h69.5¢
1h move-8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 61.5¢ → 53¢-8.5 ptsafter a signal from abkt198990
  • 54.5¢ → 65.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from Iran Semi-Official Mehr
  • 55¢ → 70¢+15 ptsafter a signal from Iranian Media
  • 55¢ → 70¢+15 ptsafter a signal from Iran's judiciary-run Mizan
  • 66¢ → 55¢-11 ptsafter a signal from sharghdaily

What moved the odds?

NeutralKan Reporter94%match
On Monday, Gulf states are scheduled to meet with Iran in Oman to find a solution to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Bahrain has announced that it will not attend or take part in any meeting in which Iran participates.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES5¢
NO96¢

Vol$607K

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.