Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Odds jumped to 61% on Sep 9, 2026
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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 49.5¢ to 61¢ (+11.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Iranian Media.
How did the odds move?
49.5¢
49.5¢
49.5¢
61¢
+11.5 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
YesIranian Media94%match
Nikzad: The memorandum of understanding has been tied to the Strait of Hormuz / We reached an agreement with Oman / We are pulling the trigger Ali Nikzad, Deputy Speaker of the Parliament, in an interview with ISNA: Those who negotiated had permission and wrote that memorandum. The great nation of Iran should know that both at the entrance and exit, a significant part of the strait is in the possession of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and we reached an agreement with Oman, and even the King of Oman has accepted it. When the Omanis accepted, the United States put pressure on them. isna.ir/xdX3yh
@isna94
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 50% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES50¢
NO51¢
$86K
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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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