Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Odds fell to 41% on Sep 7, 2026
Open
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 48.5¢ to 40.5¢ (-8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Iraq State News Agency (INA).
How did the odds move?
48.5¢
47.5¢
41¢
40.5¢
-8 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
YesIraq State News Agency (INA)97%match
Iranian Foreign Ministry: An agreement with Oman regarding a temporary passage in the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within days.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 39% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES39¢
NO62¢
$70K
Follow this market
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.