Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? Odds jumped to 50% on Aug 15, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? On , the market’s odds jumped from 20.5¢ to 50¢ (+29.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match20.5¢
+5m23¢
+30m38.5¢
+1h50¢
+24h18.5¢
1h move+29.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 15, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 23¢ → 52¢+29 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk
  • 23¢ → 37.5¢+14.5 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk
  • 23¢ → 33¢+10 ptsafter a signal from iranintlbrk
  • 26.5¢ → 34.5¢+8 ptsafter a signal from Al Arabiya
  • 40¢ → 32¢-8 ptsafter a signal from entekhab_news
  • 51¢ → 32.5¢-18.5 ptsafter a signal from Lebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed
  • 47¢ → 32.5¢-14.5 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya

What moved the odds?

Yescontent-static.cctvnews.cctv.com97%match
Iran says it has reached an agreement with Oman on a passage plan for the Strait of Hormuz.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$186K

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.